El futuro de los alimentos en el 2025. Una perspectiva global
Resumen
En el año 2025 el suministro de alimentos dependerá de factores ambientales, políticos, económicos y tecnológicos. Los más importantes factores ambientales serán el cambio climático global y el agotamiento de los recursos naturales. Desde un punto de vista práctico y debido a que el suministro de alimentos actual (basado en Seguridad Alimentaria) genera mejores rendimientos agrícolas que aquellos obtenidos con Soberanía Alimentaria, el primero continuará siendo el sistema dominante de control de la cadena alimentaria, pese a ser acusado de producir con altos costos ambientales y sociales. La inclusión de los alimentos en los mercados financieros, el comercio global, el origen y la cantidad producida de biocombustibles, el incremento de la demanda per cápita de alimentos, y la velocidad de crecimiento poblacional afectarán la demanda y precio de los alimentos y como consecuencia, su disponibilidad. En este escenario, los substitutos mejorados de la carne, la agricultura áerea y vertical, alimentos impresos en 3D, la biotecnología, nanotecnología y otras tecnologías que deben ser estudiadas. Más aún, para asegurar el futuro del suministro de alimentos es imprescindible haya acuerdos de agro-comercio justos y cambios en el estilo de vida. Finalmente, se debe aceptar que las soluciones que aseguren el suministro de alimentos a un país deben provenir de ese mismo país, especialmente si éste es pobre.
In 2025, the food supply will depend on factors such as environment, politics, economics and technology. The most important environmental factors will be the global climate change and the exhausting of natural resources. From a practical point of view, because Food Security system generates better agronomic yields, than those obtained with Food Sovereignty, the first will continue being the politic approach to control the food chain and food supply, and in despite the fact that this system has been imputed to produce with high cost to environment and society. The inclusion of food on financial markets, (un)fairness of global trade, volume and origin of biofuel production, increments in per capita food demand, and population growing will affect the food demand and its price, and as a consequence, its availability. In this scenario, improved meat substitutes, vertical and non-land farming, printed 3D food, biotechnology, nanotechnology and other technologies must be studied. Moreover, to insurance the future food supply, it is mandatory to obtain fair agro commerce agreements and changes in life style. Finally, empowerment thinking is the conceptual frame recommends to every country to address the coming food supply, especially if that one is poor.
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