Potential distribution of the genus Polylepis in the Paute river basin under a climate change scenario

Abstract

Abstract: In the Andean region, research is scarce in all areas of knowledge, especially those related to biodiversity. Modeling the distribution of plant and animal species provides a measure of the potential occupation of a species in unexplored areas, either for economic or accessibility reasons, and is therefore a useful tool for models that could be used in conservation management. The Paute River Basin, given its national water importance, was the scenario for the study of the modeling of the potential distribution of the tree species of the botanical genus Polylepis, from the Tropical Andes. For this, data from the agency WorldClim - General Circulation Models was used, which contains necessary information on climate models, methods, scenarios and climatic variables that serve for the analysis of future prediction of Polylepis forests, in addition to obtaining occurrences of the species in the study area. Once the climatic data and Polylepis observations were obtained, a Maxent method was used, which helps us to build current and future prediction models of the species. The results obtained indicate the behavior of the species in the Rio Paute basin and are preliminary data for a species of great importance, as they will be used to make decisions related to the conservation of natural resources. The resulting images help to learn more about the behaviour of certain species of the genus Polylepis under climate change scenarios.