Business cycles synchronization among Argentina, Brazil and their main EU trading partners

Authors

  • Alejandro Damián Jacobo Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas and Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias Económicas (CIECS-CONICET)
  • Alejandro Marengo Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25097/rep.n32.2020.07

Keywords:

Argenina, Brazil, business cycle

Abstract

In this paper, we apply the Hodrick and Prescott filter to explore whether the economic fluctuations of Argentina, Brazil and their main European Union (EU) trading partners followed a similar pattern for the period 1995.1–2018.4. When both South American economies are analyzed together, the highest coincidence is observed in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fluctuations (almost 75% of the observations lie on the same side of the zero line). However, as to the rest of GDP components, a drop is observed in the coincidences (the observations are close to 50%). While Argentinian GDP, private consumption and imports have a significant correlation with their Brazilian counterparts, this association is rather modest. As to their main EU partners, trade integration is likely to lead to a higher business cycles synchronization for Argentina, but it is not for Brazil.

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Published

2020-07-07

How to Cite

Jacobo, A. D., & Marengo, A. (2020). Business cycles synchronization among Argentina, Brazil and their main EU trading partners. Economy and Politics Journal, (32), 155–172. https://doi.org/10.25097/rep.n32.2020.07

Issue

No. 32 (2020): july/december

Section

Artículos

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