Analysis of the Factors of Economic Resilience in Baja California Sur, before Crisis and Natural Disasters
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25097/rep.n35.2022.04Keywords:
economic resilience, shift-share, employment, Baja California Sur, hydrometeorological phenomenaAbstract
The study of the resilience capability is strengthened based on the 2008-2009 recession, considered as one of the most major economic crises since early in the 1930’s. In this context, research about resilience is particularly relevant. This document has as a goal, to analyze the differences in the behavior of employment and the PIB in Baja California Sur, in the face of economic crises and hydrometeorological phenomena that have affected the region, in order to evaluate and relate these differences with factors that -theoretically or empirically- have been associated with economic resilience. It’s posed from a local and short period perspective, when researching this concept in terms of employment and the PIB taking into account to analyze the time period of 2000-2015.
The methodology is of a quantitative, exploratory and descriptive nature, it uses the analysis and rating techniques of Hodrick-Prescutt to evaluate its economic development through the state PIB in its cyclical and trending component. It uses the shift-share analysis to determine the differential behavior from the regions against its counterfactual (national scope), in face of a shock, in this case the crisis of 2008.
The results allow to identify the regions with the bigger resistance capability and if this resistance has its origin in a different employment sectorial composition (sectorial effect) and/or a bigger dynamism of some sectors (competitive effect). The document includes, in addition, an analysis of the impact the hurricanes create, given that the regions shows a high risk towards these kind of hydrometeorological phenomena, same that they influence the local economy, mainly because its negative effects on supply and demand of tourism and the linked sectors. The results revealed that BCS show a good economic resilience, register high resistance and recovering indicator, compared to the main cities of the country. In the sectorial and structural analysis, the tertiary sector activities are emphasized, as the ones that offer the biggest support to the local economic structure.
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