Un modelo de predicción de tráfico en la ciudad de Ambato
Abstract
RESUMEN
Este artículo contiene el estudio inicial de un modelo de predicción de tráfico, que intenta mostrar cómo puede complementarse la toma de decisiones que afecten a la ciudad a través de una buena planificación vial. Esto permitirá dar alternativas posibles de solución mediante la predicción de flujos de tráfico y determinando las intersecciones de mayor influencia dentro de la red vial, lo que por consecuencia reduciría costes en tiempo, combustible, contaminación, etc., obteniendo así una herramienta de ayuda en la toma de decisiones respecto del tráfico. Específicamente, se utiliza modelos dinámicos lineales para predecir el tráfico en distintos puntos de una ciudad y, en consecuencia, pronosticar su eventual saturación. Se puede así predecir puntos de la ciudad en la que es necesario actuar para aliviar los problemas de tráfico antes de que éstos lleguen a manifestarse.
Palabras clave: Tráfico, predicción, planificación vial, modelos dinámicos lineales, saturación, Ambato.
ABSTRACT
This paper reports the results of an initial study about a traffic prediction model, which attempts to complement city decisions by providing a good road planning. The prediction of traffic flows and the identification of intersections with major problems within the road network might enable identifying timely solutions. A support tool in decision-making regarding traffic will reduce costs in time, fuel, pollution, etc. The study uses linear dynamic models to forecast the traffic flow in the city and points where traffic saturation is likely to occur, so that timely actions can be taken to reduce traffic pressure before jams occur.
Keywords: Traffic, forecast, road planning, dynamic linear models, traffic saturation, Ambato.
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