Efecto del bono de desarrollo humano en el gasto en salud y educación en Ecuador utilizando Propensity Score Matching
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25097/rep.n30.2019.02Palabras clave:
Bono de Desarrollo Humano, PSM, Salud, Educación, EcuadorResumen
El objetivo de esta investigación es evaluar el efecto del Bono de Desarrollo Humano en el gasto de salud y educación en Ecuador utilizando Propensity Score Matching. Usamos microdatos obtenidos de la Encuesta de Condiciones de Vida del 2013-2014 publicada por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos de Ecuador. Estimamos dos conjuntos de modelos. En el primero, estimamos regresiones OLS, donde, la variable dependiente es el monto gastado en salud y en educación y la variable independiente es si la persona recibe o no el Bono de Desarrollo Humano. En el segundo, mediante modelos de elección discreta, estimamos el efecto de recibir el BDH en la probabilidad de que una persona gaste en educación y salud. Con el fin de reducir el sesgo que produce la no comparabilidad de los datos, comparamos los resultados con PSM y sin PSM entre los que reciben la transferencia y quienes no lo reciben. Los resultados muestran que los beneficiarios del BDH gastan menos en salud y educación con respecto a quienes no reciben. Estos resultados son consistentes con la incorporación de un set de variables de control relacionadas con las características socioeconómicas de las familias. Una posible implicación de política a partir de nuestros resultados es que la transferencia monetaria condicionada no está cumpliendo los objetivos de su creación. En consecuencia, las políticas sociales deberían garantizar que este tipo de programas no sean un instrumento de dependencia que limiten las capacidades de las personas debido a que esto impide la reducción de la pobreza y la desigualdad.
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