Modelización hidrogeológica de una cuenca cárstica
Abstract
RESUMEN
La hidrología superficial y la subterránea de una cuenca cárstica ubicada en Bélgica se modelaron aplicando el código distribuido y basado en la descripción de procesos físicos MIKE SHE. La calibración y posterior validación del modelo se llevaron a cabo mediante un análisis temporal y uno espacial. Adicionalmente, se realizó un análisis de sensibilidad de las predicciones del modelo modificando los valores de los parámetros calibrados, el mismo que sugiere que el parámetro más sensible a las predicciones de flujo superficial y subterráneo es el coeficiente de conductividad hidráulica horizontal debido a la gran influencia de la capa cárstica modelada, lo cual tiene congruencia con lo observado en campo. Las predicciones tanto superficiales como subterráneas obtenidas pueden considerarse como aceptables, lo cual alienta el potencial empleo del modelo desarrollado en tareas futuras de planeamiento y gestión de los recursos hídricos.
Palabras clave: Modelización, MIKE SHE, modelo distribuido, modelo basado en principios físicos, análisis de sensibilidad, hidrogeología.
ABSTRACT
The surface and groundwater hydrology of a karst catchment located in Belgium was modelled using the distributed physically based code MIKE SHE. The calibration and validation processes were carried out through a common split-sample (i.e., temporal) analysis as well as through a more specialised multi-site (i.e., spatial) analysis. Further, a sensitivity analysis was run varying the calibrated parameters beyond their calibration values, which showed that the most sensitive parameter for the simulation of both surface as well groundwater flows, is the horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the karst layer, in congruence to what has been observed in situ. Both, the surface and groundwater model predictions can be regarded as being satisfactory, encouraging the future use of the developed model for planning and management purposes.
Keywords: Modelling, MIKE SHE, distributed model, physically based model, sensitivity analysis, hydrogeology.
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References
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