Consecuencias económicas en el Producto Interno Bruto del decrecimiento poblacional en los países que atraviesan la fase final de su transición demográfica

Autores/as

  • Mario Donoso Universidad de Católica de Cuenca https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0505-4118
  • Paula Cordero Universidad Católica de Cuenca
  • Nelson Córdova Universidad Católica de Cuenca

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18537/mskn.08.02.03

Palabras clave:

modelo de transición demográfico, tasas de fertilidad, inmigración, despoblamiento, producto interno bruto

Resumen

Los países se han caracterizado por crecer demográficamente desde fines del siglo 18 hasta las últimas décadas del siglo 20, cuando algunas naciones más bien empezaron a estabilizarse e incluso a disminuir sus poblaciones, pasando por diferentes etapas del modelo de transición demográfica, debido a que las tasas de fertilidad son menores a los niveles de reemplazo de la población, ocasionando preocupación a los gobiernos que están conviviendo con este fenómeno, sobre todo en relación al posible declive de sus economías. Este estudio demuestra que si las economías logran mantenerse estables, entonces las consecuencias económicas del detrimento poblacional, pese a ser negativas desde el punto de vista macro, son positivas para los hogares, causando que el subempleo y desempleo disminuyan, generándose mejores ingresos y más consumo para las familias; y mientras más pronto los gobiernos se preparen y ajusten sus economías, las sociedades podrán adaptarse mejor a este cambio demográfico que inevitablemente ocurrirá en todas partes, a medida que avance el proceso de urbanización durante este siglo y el próximo.

 

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2017-12-28

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Donoso, M., Cordero, P., & Córdova, N. (2017). Consecuencias económicas en el Producto Interno Bruto del decrecimiento poblacional en los países que atraviesan la fase final de su transición demográfica. Maskana, 8(2), 31–50. https://doi.org/10.18537/mskn.08.02.03

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